DBG Markets: Market Report for August 13, 2026

CPI Relief Sets Stage for PPI Focus as Markets Navigate Consolidation

Dollar Index, Dollar Pairs, Gold & Crude Oil Analysis

Global markets traded on a cautiously positive note on Wednesday as the highly anticipated US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report landed precisely in line with consensus expectations. With the market focus now turn to the Producer Price Index later tonight to look for confirmation in inflationary trend.

Inflation Prints Ease Fed Hike Bets, PPI Next

The tame inflation readings offered tangible relief across risk assets, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its September FOMC meeting following last week's soft non-farm payrolls report.

· Headline CPI: Printed at 3.4% YoY, decelerating from 3.5% in June and matching forecasts.

· Core CPI: Printed at 2.5% YoY, easing from 2.6% in June, also meeting expectations.

Technical Analysis & Major Asset OutlookUS Dollar Index: Testing 99.50 Support Bounce

The US Dollar Index staged a modest technical rebound after repeatedly defending key support at 99.50, indicating buyers are stepping in to defend this floor in the near term.

USD Index, H4 Chart

EUR/USD: Bearish Engulfing Signals Tactical Pullback

In an inverse setup to the US Dollar Index, EUR/USD experienced a minor retreat following a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart.

EURUSD, H4 Chart

AUD/USD: Pullback Eyes 0.7000 Support

AUD/USD faces a technical structure similar to EUR/USD after encountering overhead resistance near the 0.7100 handle.

AUDUSD, H4 Chart

Price action suggests a short-term pullback is underway off 0.7100 resistance. Focus shifts to the primary 0.7000 psychological support area, where buyers are expected to re-emerge to defend the broader bullish reversal structure.

Commodities Outlook

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Resilient Above $4,400 Amid Slowing Momentum

Spot gold continues to hold firmly above the $4,400 threshold, though recent price action indicates that immediate buying momentum is decelerating.

XAUUSD, Daily Chart

The daily candles over the past two sessions displayed prominent upper shadows, followed by continued intraday pressure during Asian trading after initial higher attempts.

If price action breaks below the $4,400 handle, gold could experience a deeper technical pullback over the near term. However, as long as broader structural support holds, dip-buying interest remains active on deeper retracements.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

Over the near-term, watch for $4,400 along with the $4,360 support zone. If price breaches these levels, intraday momentum may temporarily tilt to the downside.

Crude Oil: Geopolitical Risk Premium Balanced by Inventory Build

Crude oil experienced a volatile session, with brief intraday spikes surrendering to a flatter close near $81.75/bbl for WTI and $87.50/bbl for Brent.

Ongoing diplomatic stalemates and restrictions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to embed a baseline risk premium into energy prices. However, upside gains were sharply capped by a massive 17.4-million-barrel build in US crude inventories reported by the EIA.

Because the geopolitical standoff remains in a stalemate without further immediate escalation, crude oil prices are expected to remain capped within their established horizontal trading ranges.

UKOIL, H4 Chart

USOIL, H4 Chart

With both crude benchmarks nearing the upper boundary of their consolidation channels, near-term technicals favor a technical pullback, where short-term traders may look for intraday downside plays.

Bottom Line & Asset Summary

July US CPI matched forecasts at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, lowering September Fed rate-hike odds to 40% (60% chance of a hold).

As markets await tonight's PPI report for directional momentum, the US Dollar is bouncing off 99.50 support beneath 100.00 resistance, Gold holds above $4,400 despite slowing momentum, EUR/USD and AUD/USD test pullback support at 1.1500 and 0.7000, and Crude Oil faces a potential technical pullback near range highs following a massive EIA inventory build.

· US Dollar Index: Bearish Consolidation; bouncing off 99.50 support toward 100.00 resistance, but overall bias remains tilted lower below 100.00.

· EUR/USD: Tactical Pullback; H4 bearish engulfing eyes 1.1500 support, which offers a buy-on-dip opportunity if held.

· AUD/USD: Retracing Off Resistance; capped beneath 0.7100, focusing on 0.7000 primary support to defend the bullish structure.

· Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Momentum Decelerating; holding above $4,400, but watching $4,400 and $4,360 as key levels for a deeper technical pullback.

· Crude Oil (WTI / Brent): Range-Bound Pullback Risk; WTI ($81.75) and Brent ($87.50) constrained near channel highs as a massive 17.4M barrel inventory build counteracts geopolitical risk premiums.