US-Iran Talks Stalemate; Oil Rises, Gold Breaks Above US$4,400

One-Sentence Summary

On August 11, commodities were driven by US-Iran negotiations, Strait of Hormuz risks, and expectations for US inflation data. Oil rose as hopes for the reopening of the Strait weakened, while gold climbed above US$4,400 ahead of the US July CPI on August 12.

Oil

US-Iran negotiations remain uncertain, increasing concerns over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

US-Iran Talks → Strait of Hormuz → Shipping → Energy Supply → Oil Prices

Brent reached around US$88.09, while WTI rose to about US$82.52.

Gold

Gold broke above US$4,400, reaching around US$4,402.52, its highest level in more than two months.

Support comes from safe-haven demand, weaker US employment data, and the break above EMA 200.

The key question is whether gold can hold above EMA 200.

Dollar & Treasuries

The dollar and Treasury yields also rebounded as markets awaited the US July CPI.

The key question is whether cooling employment and inflation will point in the same direction.

Key Market Focus

AssetMain Driver🟡 GoldSafe-haven demand, CPI, EMA 200🛢 OilUS-Iran talks, Hormuz, supply risks💵 USDCPI, Fed expectations🇺🇸 TreasuriesInflation, rate outlook

Market Outlook

Two key themes are driving commodities:

Geopolitics → Oil → Inflation

CPI → Fed Policy → USD / Treasuries → Gold

The August 12 US July CPI will be the next major catalyst for market repricing.

Disclaimer

This content is for market information and commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risk, and leveraged products may result in partial or total loss of capital.