DBG Markets: Market Report for August 12, 2026

Key US CPI Report: Will Inflation Confirm Fed Pause？

Dollar Index, Dollar Majors, Gold, Silver & Nasdaq100 Analysis

Following last week's non-farm payrolls weakness that stirred multi-asset volatility, global financial markets have entered a temporary wait-and-see mode. All eyes are now locked on the release of the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for today.

CPI Preview: Easing Inflation vs. Fed Expectations

The broader market backdrop remains defined by US Dollar weakness, Gold resilience, and equity strength as investors progressively price down a September Federal Reserve interest rate hike following easing energy costs and slowing labor metrics.

Technical Analysis & Major Asset OutlookUS Dollar & Dollar Pairs Outlook: More Waves to Come？

The US Dollar Index confirmed a technical bearish reversal after slicing below its 100.00 baseline following the confirmation of a double-top reversal, but price action has paused near immediate support.

USD Index, H4 Chart

· Technical Setup: The greenback is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 99.50 support and 100.00 resistance.

· Outlook: The next directional breakout will be dictated by today's CPI release. A dovish print threatens a breakdown below 99.50 toward 99.00, whereas a hawkish print opens the door for a retest of 100.00 overhead resistance. Still, a bearish bias remains favored as long as the 100-point level fails to regain footing as support.

EUR/USD: Bullish Reversal Intact, Eyes Buy-on-Dip Support

EUR/USD maintains a constructive technical posture following its recent consolidation breakout. Unless a sharp shift in Fed expectations occurs, the pair is expected to maintain its upward momentum.

EURUSD, H4 Chart

Immediate structural support holds firm at 1.1500, while near-term overhead resistance stands at 1.1590 – 1.1600. As long as 1.1500 holds on any CPI-driven volatility, the preferred technical strategy remains “buy-the-dip,” targeting an eventual upside breakout above 1.1590 – 1.1620.

From a technical perspective, a bullish reversal remains active alongside bullish crossover confirmation across multiple moving averages.

USD/JPY: Ranging Between 158.00 and 160.00

USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to US Treasury yields and broad rate differentials, making it a key pair to watch around the CPI data release. Should a bullish scenario unfold for the dollar on a CPI beat, the weaker Yen may provide a solid long opportunity.

USDJPY, H4 Chart

Following intervention, USD/JPY has recovered much of its losses, with price action currently bound within a major 158.00 – 160.00 horizontal corridor.

· Hawkish Scenario: If CPI prints hotter than expected, USD/JPY stands out as an ideal long candidate to retest major overhead resistance at 160.00, with potential to edge higher on persistent Yen pressure.

· Dovish Scenario: If CPI confirms easing inflation, USD/JPY faces renewed downside pressure, pulling back toward 158.00 support.

Generally, the Yen is expected to remain under persistent selling pressure (as evidenced by post-intervention weakness), making USD/JPY an ideal vehicle for a bullish dollar thesis.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish Expansion Awaits CPI Catalyst

Spot gold continues to trade constructively following its breakout, buoyed by lower Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar. Fundamentally, Gold's near-term extension depends heavily on whether CPI data drives September Fed hike odds further below 50%.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

Holding above $4,400 keeps immediate bullish momentum active, though near-term volatility could emerge as momentum eases ahead of the CPI. The primary structural support validating the broad bullish momentum rests at $4,250 – $4,300. As long as this zone holds, a buy-on-dip bias remains favored.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

For short-term or intraday traders, tracking the current trend remains key, with $4,360 acting as major immediate support heading into the CPI session.

Spot Silver (XAG/USD): Bullish Crossover Drives Buy-on-Dip Sentiment

Spot silver continues to track Gold's broader bullish reversal, supported by positive technical moving average setups and its recent consolidation breakout.

XAGUSD, H4 ChartUS Equities: UT100 Testing Key Resistance

US equity benchmarks remain anchored near record levels, with the S&P 500 consolidating near historical highs. Attention remains focused on rate-sensitive growth stocks within the Nasdaq 100 (UT100).

UT100, Daily ChartBottom Line & Asset Summary

Global markets enter today's US CPI release in a consolidation posture as CME FedWatch September rate-hike odds hover below 50% (48.7%). A dovish CPI print (Headline <= 3.4%) is expected to extend US Dollar downside below 99.50 and catalyze bullish extensions across Gold, Silver, and Nasdaq 100 (above 30,000 resistance), whereas a hawkish surprise favors a USD/JPY push toward 160.00.