ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Hits $4,400 as Hike Odds Fall

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on August 10 (Monday), spot gold moved higher in volatile trade, rising 1.3% and breaking above USD 4,390 per ounce. Prices briefly touched USD 4,395.11 per ounce, the highest level since June 5.

On August 11 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold extended its gains and briefly rose to USD 4,400.74 per ounce, again refreshing the highest level since June 5. The short-term structure remains firm.

Global Headlines

Trump Claims Full Hormuz Control

Trump said the US has completed mine-clearing operations across the Strait of Hormuz. He said the US Navy now has “100%” control of the key waterway. According to Trump, the Strait is open, and any mines still placed by Iran will be removed by US forces.

Trump Demands Compensation From Iran

Trump said on social media that Iran is asking the US for compensation over losses from the past five months of military conflict. He said the US is also demanding compensation from Iran and has instructed representatives to include this requirement in all future talks.

Trump Says Navy Controls Strait

Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is now open and controlled only by the US Navy. Speaking in the Oval Office, he described the US blockade as “foolproof” and called it a “wall of steel,” allowing only vessels selected by Washington to pass.

FED Hike Odds Reach 80.8%

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price a 48.8% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in September, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 51.2%. By December, the probability of no change is 19.2%, while the chance of at least one 25bp hike stands at 80.8%.

Trump Denies Frequent Warsh Contact

Trump said he has had only one “brief” conversation with FED Chair Warsh since Warsh took office, denying reports of frequent communication. Trump again said he wants lower rates, but added that he “100% supports” Warsh and stressed that FED policy is decided by the Board.

Hammack Sees Multiple Rate Hikes

Cleveland FED President Hammack said inflation has not yet returned to target, and the FED may need to raise rates several times. She said one 25bp hike would have limited economic impact, and the current 3.50% to 3.75% rate range has not clearly restricted the economy.

Hammack Says Jobs Do Not Shift Focus

Hammack said the labor market does not show major problems, and July employment data will not change her focus on inflation. She said markets can help guide the FED but cannot replace policy action. At the July meeting, Hammack opposed holding rates steady and favored a 25bp hike.

Bitcoin ETFs Draw $850 Million

US Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than USD 850 million in inflows last week, the strongest weekly performance since April. After Coinkites Coldcard wallet was attacked and around USD 130 million in Bitcoin was stolen, some investors shifted from self-custody to regulated ETF products. Bitcoin fell more than 2% on Monday to USD 63,830.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

Spot gold remains in a further upside structure, with 4,245 acting as the key support level. If prices continue to hold above 4,245, the upward trend may extend further, with resistance levels to watch at 4,385 and 4,425.

If gold falls below 4,245, the short-term structure may weaken. In that case, support is seen at 4,170 and 4,110. Overall, gold has moved back near USD 4,400 and remains in a strong recovery and high-level extension phase.

RSI is moving higher, showing continued improvement in short-term momentum. Bulls remain in control. Markets are currently pricing the Strait of Hormuz situation, the FED rate path, and changing inflation expectations. Short-term volatility may remain elevated.

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