DBG Markets: Market Report for August 10, 2026

NFP Reshapes Fed Rate Path; Inflation Data in Focus

Weekly Outlook: US Dollar, Gold, Cryptocurrency & Crude Oil

Global financial markets kicked off this week on a bullish footing, carrying strong upside momentum from Friday's session after a shocking US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report drastically altered Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.

NFP Reshapes Fed Rate Hike Expectations

July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23,000 jobs (versus an expected gain of 80,000), while the previous month's reading was sharply revised downward from 57,000 to 20,000.

Whats Next？

Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.

· These inflation prints will serve as a crucial reality check on macroeconomic health and shape the Fed's policy outlook.

· They will determine whether the US Dollar extends its losses or stages a recovery as markets continue to price down a September hike.

Weekly Analysis: US Dollar, Gold, Cryptocurrency & Crude Oil

US Dollar Outlook: Bearish Confirmation Intact Under Key Levels

The sharp decline in Fed rate-hike bets and falling Treasury yields continue to undermine US Dollar support. The previous fundamental bullish driver has faded, leaving technical structures firmly biased to the downside.

USD Index, H4 Chart

Key Levels: Immediate downside attention centers on the 99.50 support level. A breakdown below 99.50 opens the door toward 99.00. Meanwhile, 100.00 remains crucial overhead resistance.

Gold Outlook: Bullish Breakout Intact Above $4,200

Golds overarching uptrend remains firmly intact following its decisive breakout, supported by a softer US Dollar and lower Treasury yields. However, price action faces immediate overhead technical resistance near $4,360.

XAUUSD, Daily Chart

XAUUSD, H2 Chart

With overhead resistance near, a technical pullback is anticipated over the near term. Immediate short-term support stands near $4,300, while major structural support lies between $4,200 and $4,250.

Trading Strategy: The overarching strategy remains "buy-the-dip." Intraday traders can watch the $4,300 level for short-term dip-buying setups. Swing traders looking for the next major leg higher should monitor the primary $4,200 – $4,250 support belt for deeper retracements.

Macro Driver: The upcoming CPI and PPI inflation reports will determine the dollar's direction, which will directly impact gold's next expansion move.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Channel Breakout Shifts Focus to $65,000

BTCUSD, H4 Chart

The breakout above channel resistance invalidates the previous short-term bearish trajectory, with market focus now returning to the 65,000 resistance handle.

ETHUSD, H4 Chart

Crypto Outlook Summary: Easing Fed rate-hike expectations provide a favorable liquidity backdrop for risk assets. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum must clear near-term technical hurdles to confirm sustained upside expansion.

Crude Oil: Short-Term Sentiment Driving Range-Bound Structure

Crude oil continues to react to short-term headlines and shifting geopolitical sentiment regarding Middle East diplomatic discussions. Despite brief sentiment-driven price swings, technical structures point toward a range-bound consolidation pattern rather than a sustained trend breakout.

UKOIL, H4 Chart

USOIL, H4 Chart

Technical outlooks for crude oil remain contained within established horizontal boundaries, with key levels defined as:

· Upper Resistance: UKOIL - $88.00 ; USOIL - $84.70

· Major Support: UKOIL - $80.00 ; USOIL - $75.00

· Mid-Point Pivot: UKOIL - $85.00 ; USOIL - $80.00

The mid-point pivot serves as a key short-term level to gauge immediate directional momentum within the channel. Until a breakout occurs, expect energy prices to trade within established horizontal boundaries as deflating war premiums balance against potential supply management headlines.

Bottom Line & Asset Summary

A surprising contraction in July US non-farm payrolls (-23k) sent CME FedWatch odds for a September Fed rate hike down to 44%, driving Treasury yields and the US Dollar lower while fueling upside across equities, Gold, and Crypto.

Ahead of Wednesday's US CPI and Thursday's PPI data, Gold maintains a "buy-the-dip" bias above $4,200, the US Dollar Index targets 99.50 support, and Crude Oil consolidates within key horizontal ranges.

· US Dollar Index: Bearish Continuation; suppressed beneath 100.00 resistance, targeting 99.50 and 99.00 support ahead of US CPI/PPI data.

· Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Bullish Expansion; holding firm above $4,200 – $4,250 structural demand, watching $4,300 for intraday dip-buying under $4,360 – $4,400 resistance.

· Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Channel Breakout; cleared descending channel resistance, consolidating within a 63,500 – 65,000 range bound zone.

· Crude Oil (UKOIL / USOIL): Range-Bound Consolidation; UKOIL capped between $80.00 and $88.00, USOIL capped between $75.00 and $84.70, with mid-point pivots at $85.00 and $80.00.