Fed rate-hike odds rise; USD jumps Tue; gold pressured, oil up ~4%.

On Tuesday, the April CPI data in the United States showed a surge in energy prices, pushing overall inflation to a three-year high, and raising expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. At the same time, as hopes of reaching a peace agreement weaken, the US and Iran have once again exchanged harsh words. The US dollar index rose, reaching a new high in nearly a week, and finally closed up 0.37% at 98.29; The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.457%, while the 2-year Treasury yield sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate closed at 4.002%. On Tuesday (May 12th), the gold market experienced a severe shock. After reaching a high of $4773 at one point, it quickly fell back and fell to around $4638 at another point. It closed at $4715, a decrease of about 0.4%. The US CPI rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, reaching a new high in nearly three years, while oil prices surged over 4% due to the "precarious" Iran ceasefire agreement. The combination of high inflation and stagflation risks has completely shattered the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, causing a sharp rise in the yields of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which has suppressed gold prices. As market concerns about the ongoing war in Iran intensify, international oil prices continue to rise. WTI crude oil once approached $103, but ultimately closed up 3.76% at $102.32 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 2.71% at $105.3 per barrel.