Iran war: India\s fertiliser supply under strain after Hormuz blockade

Fertiliser use typically peaks during the June-to-September monsoon crop season

Natural gas is the main raw material used to make urea and India imports about 85% of it, mostly from the Gulf region.

Up to four weeks [of supply disruptions] are absorbable via local production or imports from other regions. Anything more than that would become more concerning, Alberto Persona, director of fertiliser and sustainability analytics at S&P Global Energy, told the BBC.

Fertiliser plants in India are getting only around 70% of their gas needs currently, following a government order issued earlier this month. Industry insiders say this has led to some manufacturers cutting production.

To be sure, the supply squeeze is not limited to India. Global fertiliser prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with urea prices climbing and gas prices across Asia increasing.

Higher costs and reduced availability may lead some farmers to cut fertiliser use - even though its immediate impact on output is likely to be limited.

The risk on crop yields is genuinely small for the next crop season, but becomes increasingly important for the future ones, Persona said.

Experts add that any movement in food prices may depend more on market expectations than immediate changes in crop output.

The real problem with prices is that they are not always driven by market fundamentals - expectations play an important role, Persona said.

Modi has said India has taken steps to increase domestic fertiliser production and diversify import sources to reduce reliance on a few countries.

On Wednesday, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan asked officials to ensure an equitable and uninterrupted supply of fertilisers.

The crisis may also increase the governments subsidy burden, says Hussain, as higher global prices push up the cost of supplying fertilisers at controlled rates to farmers.

Now, much depends on how long the conflict continues, with analysts saying supply chains could stabilise within weeks if shipping resumes at the normal pace.